International student visa grants data for 2024 revealed some unexpected trends. Despite government attempts to dissuade international students, visa grants in November and December 2024 surpassed those of previous years. The government’s policies aimed at reducing the number of international students seemed to face resistance from parts of the sector.
The government employed visa processing delays as a strategy to discourage applicants and slow down student arrivals. By mid-2024, there was a significant backlog of more than 113,000 unprocessed applications as a result of a processing go-slow from February to May 2024. Although processing levels increased in the latter half of 2024, the total applications processed for the year were lower compared to previous years.
The high visa grants in November and December 2024 were attributed to processing catching up with old applications being approved. The overall grant rate in December 2024 was the highest in two years, indicating potential improvements in processing policies. Despite this positive finish, the total visa grants for 2024 were lower compared to previous years, with Chinese students notably defying the government’s policies.
Visa grants for vocational education and higher education sectors followed different trajectories in 2024. Vocational visa grants experienced a significant drop compared to previous years and struggled to recover, while higher education grants rebounded in the latter half of the year. The differences in treatment of onshore and offshore applications also impacted the sectors differently.
Onshore vocational applicants faced challenges, with a backlog of applications and potential vulnerability to visa tests. The higher education sector showed more resilience, with increasing grant rates towards the end of 2024. However, institutions heavily reliant on migration-sensitive markets were affected by policy changes.
Looking ahead to 2025, the data suggests that fewer students may face rejections due to improved understanding of application processes. Despite the challenges faced by the vocational education sector, there is potential for growth, especially in appeals cases. The overall trend indicates a shift towards more successful visa applications in the future.
In conclusion, while short-term visa grant data may fluctuate, long-term trends reveal the challenges and opportunities within the international education sector. Higher education appears more robust compared to vocational education, with positive indications for grant rates. Understanding these trends is crucial for shaping policies and practices to support the international student community.
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