In November 2024, Australia witnessed a surge in offshore student visa grants for the higher education sector, setting the stage for an unprecedented student visa boom. This surge poses a significant challenge for the government in managing Australia’s third student visa boom and aligning it with Treasury’s migration forecasts.
Australia has a history of grappling with student visa booms, with the first boom emerging in the late 1980s and the second in the mid-2000s. The current boom began before the COVID-19 pandemic, gaining momentum in 2022-23 when borders reopened, and the government accelerated the student visa process in response to pressure from universities and business interests.
Each student visa boom typically unfolds in three stages. Initially, there is a lenient visa policy that spurs a rapid increase in offshore visa grants, followed by government interventions to curb the influx of students. Finally, efforts are made to address the visa status of a large cohort of students unwilling to return home or secure permanent residency.
In past booms, the government opted for special visa pathways to permanent residence rather than repatriating students, given the logistical challenges and limited success of such an endeavor. However, the current situation presents unique challenges compared to previous booms, with a larger number of students and universities playing a more significant role in the phenomenon.
Despite recent policy tightening, the government has struggled to curb the overseas recruitment activities of higher education providers, particularly universities. This trend is further complicated by a backlog of onshore student visa applications and an increasing number of refusals, leading to a rise in appeals at the Administrative Review Tribunal.
The government faces mounting pressure to control student visa grants, prioritize academic excellence, and ensure visa certainty. However, with the record November 2024 offshore visa grants persisting, Treasury’s migration forecasts may be at risk, necessitating swift action to address the growing student visa backlog and potential asylum claims.
As the government grapples with the implications of the ongoing student visa boom, industry stakeholders, policymakers, and experts emphasize the need for strategic interventions to manage student migration effectively and navigate the complexities of Australia’s evolving visa landscape. The forthcoming election adds urgency to finding sustainable solutions to balance migration targets and address the challenges posed by the current student visa boom.
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